prolonged wind event

From the National Weather Service office in Sacramento: WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY... * WINDS: SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH OR HIGHER. * TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF STORMS AFFECT THE REGION. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: CHICO...REDDING...BURNEY...LAKEPORT...ALDER SPRINGS...PARADISE. * IMPACTS: BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS ARE LIKELY. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CARS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. Wow! For the next THREE DAYS we will experience sustained winds of over 20 mph and gusts up to 55 mph. It looks like many areas may see lengthy power outages. This is reminiscent of the big windstorm of January, 2008. I remember being without power for six days during that storm. The 2008 storm lasted just over 24 hours, with peak winds of up to 60 mph, just for a comparison. Oy vey!

more storminess on the way

This last storm that moved through the Chico area today was not that impressive. It rained moderately hard for about two hours late this morning into early afternoon. However, there was no widespread flooding (though some ponding on Chico streets was observed by moi). Chico received .73 of an inch of rain today, while the highest wind gust was around 30 mph at the airport. This storm was fairly typical of what we see during the late fall and winter. However, a much bigger, more powerful storm is headed straight for Northern California. Another Wind Advisory will go into effect beginning at 10 am tomorrow and lasting until 10 am Friday. Wind gusts to 50 mph, sustained 20-30 mph, will affect the Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills (Paradise and Magalia). The Flood Watch has now been extended through next Monday afternoon, as yet another storm will invade late Saturday and linger into late Sunday. These storms are tapping into some abundant subtropical moisture from the South Pacific, and the jet stream is steering this moisture and these storms right at us. It's often termed the "Pineapple Express," and it's like a fire hose over 300 miles wide has been aimed right at the West Coast. In other words, we're going to get blasted. To further exacerbate the flood potential, the snow level will be above 7000 feet in the Sierra Nevada, which means most of the precipitation in the mountains will fall as heavy rain. This will cause creeks and streams to flood; these floodwaters will then stream down into the valley, raising mainstem river levels. Not a pretty picture; in fact, a potentially dangerous situation. If you live near a creek, keep an eye out for rising waters this weekend and prepare to move to higher ground. Here is Chico's seven day forecast from the National Weather Service: Tonight Showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Rain. High near 59. South southeast wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 48. Breezy, with a southeast wind 24 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Showers. High near 56. Breezy, with a southeast wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Friday Night Rain. Low around 48. Southeast wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Rain. High near 55. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Rain. Low around 52. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Sunday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Monday A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Tuesday A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Tuesday Night A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Wednesday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

major storms coming

Where to begin? I guess the precipitation. Up to 8 inches of rain are possible in the Sacramento Valley (including Chico) from tomorrow morning through Sunday. During that same time period, some Sierra Nevada mountain and foothill locations could receive up to 20 inches of rain! Incredible! A Flood Watch is still in effect beginning tomorrow morning and lasting through Sunday for the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothill and mountain locations. Urban and small stream flooding is likely, though mainstem river flooding is less likely due to low reservoir levels. Next, the winds: winds could gust over 40 mph late tomorrow morning with this first storm, mainly from the central Sacramento Valley southward. However, winds will increase again Thursday afternoon into Friday as a second, more powerful storm moves in. Power outages are likely, but will probably be localized and not widespread. So, we have to be concerned with both heavy rainfall and winds over the next several days. Be careful out there, and stay safe! Here's Chico's latest forecast from the National Weather Service: Tonight Rain after 4am. Steady temperature around 48. East wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 54. Southeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 49. Southeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Rain, mainly after 10am. High near 59. Southeast wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 51. Breezy, with a south southeast wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Showers. High near 56. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Night Rain. Low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Saturday Night Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 49. Sunday Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Sunday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Monday A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Monday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Tuesday A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

Update on Flood Watch

From the National Weather Service in Sacramento: FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BURNEY BASIN/EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY...CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA...CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY...CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...MOTHERLODE...MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY...NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY... NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SHASTA LAKE AREA/NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK. * FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN BUTTE AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES WHERE A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF REDDING WHERE 10 TO 15 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THE VALLEY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. * IMPACTS: DEBRIS FLOWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IN SHASTA...BUTTE...AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BECOME LIKELY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE FLOOD CONTROL AND WATER STORAGE RESERVOIRS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Wind Advisory for tomorrow

Not only do we have to be concerned with the flooding potential, but also wind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

Flood Watch in effect

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...SACRAMENTO VALLEY...WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...NORTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS...CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA...CLEAR LAKE AREA...SHASTA LAKE AREA...LASSEN PARK. * FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT * CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THE MOST CERTAINTY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE SHASTA AND FEATHER RIVER DRAINAGES. * DEBRIS FLOWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IN SHASTA...BUTTE...AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. * FLOODING EXPECTED ON SMALLER TRIBUTARY CREEKS AND STREAMS. * WEIR OVERFLOW AND RUNOFF IN BYPASSES POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

"Impressive rainfall totals are likely"

The title of this blog entry is a direct quote from the National Weather Service. Here's a synopsis of the impending stormy weather: MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING MID-WEEK AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY SEVERAL MORE STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ACCESS TO DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC MEANING CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY WITH EACH SYSTEM ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR ANY ONE AREA COULD SIGNIFICANTLY VARY AND WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM EACH SYSTEM SETS UP. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER WITH SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE REGION...DETAILS ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH STORM THAT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WILL BECOME CLEARER. IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH COULD INCREASE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED AND WATER GOES DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF RATHER THAN SEEPING INTO SOILS RESULTING IN RISING WATER LEVELS ON THE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE: *URBAN AND RURAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR FLOOD PRONE AREAS. *MAJOR RISES IN WATER LEVELS FOR RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH POSSIBLE SMALL STEAM FLOODING. *MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE BRANCHES AND TREES. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. *MUD AND ROCK SLIDES LIKELY AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS FOR RECENT BURN SCARS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENTS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT SERIES OF STORMS.