Hydrologic Outlook for California

From the National Weather Service: THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR ALL BASINS IN CALIFORNIA. DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND LOW SNOWPACKS ARE MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING. MUCH OF THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED VERY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER A VERY PRODUCTIVE NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECORDED PRECIPITATION AMONG THE TOP TEN LOWEST ON RECORD FOR THE COMBINED MONTHS OF JANUARY AND FEBRUARY. THIS HAS REDUCED THE STATEWIDE SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT FROM 134 PERCENT OF AVERAGE NEAR THE START OF JANUARY TO ABOUT 66 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SOME RELIEF OCCURRED DURING THE EARLY PART OF MARCH...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE A SERIES OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS TO RETURN THE SNOWPACK TO NORMAL CONDITIONS BY APRIL 1ST... WHICH IS THE TYPICAL TIME OF MAXIMUM SNOWPACK ACCUMULATION. IT APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY THAT SNOWPACKS CAN RECOVER FROM THE CURRENT DEFICIT THIS LATE INTO THE WET SEASON. NOTE THAT FLOODING COULD STILL RESULT FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ALONE OR COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY APRIL. This is not good news, as California gets over a third of its water supply from the Sierra Nevada snowpack. Water restrictions appear imminent for the summer, and the fire season may start earlier than normal. One long shot is that we get numerous cold storms between now and the end of April to rebuild the snowpack to normal levels. That looks like it won't happen, however. We'll have to wait and see what the future holds!