rain train

The rain train continues. Chico has received 2.75 inches of rain the past two days, with more on the way. At my house in the Sierra Nevada foothills east of Chico, 3.35 inches have accumulated. Today will see off and on showers, with heavier rain tonight and tomorrow night. We have one more big storm to contend with, arriving tomorrow and lasting into Sunday. Chico could see another 2-5 inches of rain between now and Sunday. A Flood Watch is still in effect through Sunday for potentially flooding rains, while a Flood Advisory is in effect for Butte County until 5:15 this afternoon for urban and small stream flooding. Winds have also been a factor, with a peak gust in Chico yesterday of 40 mph. The Wind Advisory is still in effect until 10 am Sunday. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph, may cause power outages and difficult driving conditions. Some good news: the sun should return (briefly) by Monday. Here is Chico's seven day forecast from the National Weather Service: Today Showers. High near 59. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 20 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Tonight Rain. Low around 53. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Rain. High near 58. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday Night Rain. Low around 53. Breezy, with a southeast wind around 22 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday Showers. High near 57. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 59. Monday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Tuesday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Tuesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Wednesday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Wednesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 57.

updates from the National Weather Service

Figured I'd post all of the warnings and advisories before I lose power (again). FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 323 PM PST THU NOV 29 2012 CAC007-011-021-033-035-057-063-089-091-101-103-113-115-302300- /O.NEW.KSTO.FA.W.0001.121129T2323Z-121130T2300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ YOLO CA-SIERRA CA-NEVADA CA-COLUSA CA-PLUMAS CA-SUTTER CA-LASSEN CA- LAKE CA-YUBA CA-SHASTA CA-GLENN CA-TEHAMA CA-BUTTE CA- 323 PM PST THU NOV 29 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN... COLUSA COUNTY... NEVADA COUNTY.. SUTTER COUNTY... NORTHWESTERN YOLO COUNTY.. YUBA COUNTY... BUTTE COUNTY... GLENN COUNTY... LAKE COUNTY... EXTREME WEST CENTRAL LASSEN COUNTY... WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY... SHASTA COUNTY... WESTERN SIERRA COUNTY... TEHAMA COUNTY... * UNTIL 315 PM PST FRIDAY * AT 315 PM PST BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL FALL OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE VALLEY AND 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR THE WARNED AREA. * RAPID RISES AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN MANY AREA STREAMS. SOME CREEKS THAT ARE LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING INCLUDE COW CREEK...COTTONWOOD CREEK...BATTLE CREEK...CLEAR CREEK...DRY CREEK...BUTTE CREEK. * MOUNTAIN RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING ABOVE THE RESERVOIRS WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MUD AND ROCK SLIDES. * DEBRIS FLOWS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IN SHASTA...TEHAMA...COLUSA...AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. * WEIR OVERFLOW THROUGH BYPASSES WILL OCCUR AS THE SACRAMENTO RIVER SYSTEM IN THE VALLEY WILL RISE. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. && LAT...LON 3950 12308 3955 12289 4034 12308 4058 12271 4070 12276 4119 12248 4119 12135 4059 12133 4045 12107 4026 12108 4017 12088 3970 12072 3963 12049 3945 12038 3902 12150 3858 12213 3884 12231 3870 12249 3874 12273 3908 12310 $$ CS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Flood Watch FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 412 PM PST THU NOV 29 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER THE WEEKEND... .HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE TWO HEAVIEST TIMES OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE OVER SHASTA COUNTY ALONG WITH BUTTE AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES WHERE AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY... AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY SUNDAY. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE VALLEY AND WEIR OVERFLOW THROUGH BYPASSES WILL OCCUR. LARGE RIVERS IN THE VALLEY WILL RISE...THE UPPER SACRAMENTO WILL LIKELY EXCEED FLOOD STAGE AT BY SEVERAL FEET AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS BURNED IN RECENT WILDFIRES. IN THE MOUNTAINS...FLOODING OF RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE OVER SHASTA COUNTY ALONG WITH EASTERN BUTTE AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES...THOUGH OTHER AREAS WILL ALSO BE VULNERABLE. CAZ015-016-301215- /O.CON.KSTO.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-121204T0200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY- 412 PM PST THU NOV 29 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. * THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON * FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE UPPER SACRAMENTO RIVER...ESPECIALLY AROUND RED BLUFF BEGINNING SUNDAY. SOME CREEKS THAT ARE LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING INCLUDE COW CREEK...COTTONWOOD CREEK...BATTLE CREEK...CLEAR CREEK...DRY CREEK...BUTTE CREEK. * DEBRIS FLOWS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IN SHASTA AND TEHAMA COUNTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 336 PM PST THU NOV 29 2012 CAZ013>016-063-064-066-068-301200- /O.CON.KSTO.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-121202T1800Z/ SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY- BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY- CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY- MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY- CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY- NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY- WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURNEY...REDDING...CHICO... ALDER SPRINGS...LAKEPORT...PARADISE...CHESTER...QUINCY 336 PM PST THU NOV 29 2012 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY... * WINDS: SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * TIMING: STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: CHESTER...QUINCY...CHICO...REDDING... BURNEY...LAKEPORT...ALDER SPRINGS...PARADISE. * IMPACTS: BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS ARE LIKELY. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CARS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

prolonged wind event

From the National Weather Service office in Sacramento: WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY... * WINDS: SOUTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH OR HIGHER. * TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF STORMS AFFECT THE REGION. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: CHICO...REDDING...BURNEY...LAKEPORT...ALDER SPRINGS...PARADISE. * IMPACTS: BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND LIMBS ARE LIKELY. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CARS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. Wow! For the next THREE DAYS we will experience sustained winds of over 20 mph and gusts up to 55 mph. It looks like many areas may see lengthy power outages. This is reminiscent of the big windstorm of January, 2008. I remember being without power for six days during that storm. The 2008 storm lasted just over 24 hours, with peak winds of up to 60 mph, just for a comparison. Oy vey!

more storminess on the way

This last storm that moved through the Chico area today was not that impressive. It rained moderately hard for about two hours late this morning into early afternoon. However, there was no widespread flooding (though some ponding on Chico streets was observed by moi). Chico received .73 of an inch of rain today, while the highest wind gust was around 30 mph at the airport. This storm was fairly typical of what we see during the late fall and winter. However, a much bigger, more powerful storm is headed straight for Northern California. Another Wind Advisory will go into effect beginning at 10 am tomorrow and lasting until 10 am Friday. Wind gusts to 50 mph, sustained 20-30 mph, will affect the Sacramento Valley and surrounding foothills (Paradise and Magalia). The Flood Watch has now been extended through next Monday afternoon, as yet another storm will invade late Saturday and linger into late Sunday. These storms are tapping into some abundant subtropical moisture from the South Pacific, and the jet stream is steering this moisture and these storms right at us. It's often termed the "Pineapple Express," and it's like a fire hose over 300 miles wide has been aimed right at the West Coast. In other words, we're going to get blasted. To further exacerbate the flood potential, the snow level will be above 7000 feet in the Sierra Nevada, which means most of the precipitation in the mountains will fall as heavy rain. This will cause creeks and streams to flood; these floodwaters will then stream down into the valley, raising mainstem river levels. Not a pretty picture; in fact, a potentially dangerous situation. If you live near a creek, keep an eye out for rising waters this weekend and prepare to move to higher ground. Here is Chico's seven day forecast from the National Weather Service: Tonight Showers likely, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Rain. High near 59. South southeast wind 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 48. Breezy, with a southeast wind 24 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Showers. High near 56. Breezy, with a southeast wind 20 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Friday Night Rain. Low around 48. Southeast wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Rain. High near 55. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Rain. Low around 52. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Sunday Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Sunday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Monday A slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Tuesday A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Tuesday Night A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Wednesday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

major storms coming

Where to begin? I guess the precipitation. Up to 8 inches of rain are possible in the Sacramento Valley (including Chico) from tomorrow morning through Sunday. During that same time period, some Sierra Nevada mountain and foothill locations could receive up to 20 inches of rain! Incredible! A Flood Watch is still in effect beginning tomorrow morning and lasting through Sunday for the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothill and mountain locations. Urban and small stream flooding is likely, though mainstem river flooding is less likely due to low reservoir levels. Next, the winds: winds could gust over 40 mph late tomorrow morning with this first storm, mainly from the central Sacramento Valley southward. However, winds will increase again Thursday afternoon into Friday as a second, more powerful storm moves in. Power outages are likely, but will probably be localized and not widespread. So, we have to be concerned with both heavy rainfall and winds over the next several days. Be careful out there, and stay safe! Here's Chico's latest forecast from the National Weather Service: Tonight Rain after 4am. Steady temperature around 48. East wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 54. Southeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 49. Southeast wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Rain, mainly after 10am. High near 59. Southeast wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 51. Breezy, with a south southeast wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Showers. High near 56. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Friday Night Rain. Low around 50. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Saturday Night Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 49. Sunday Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Sunday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Monday A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Monday Night A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Tuesday A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59.

Update on Flood Watch

From the National Weather Service in Sacramento: FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...BURNEY BASIN/EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY...CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA...CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY...CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...MOTHERLODE...MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY...NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY... NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...SHASTA LAKE AREA/NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK. * FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON * CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN BUTTE AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES WHERE A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF REDDING WHERE 10 TO 15 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THE VALLEY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. * IMPACTS: DEBRIS FLOWS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IN SHASTA...BUTTE...AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BECOME LIKELY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE THE FLOOD CONTROL AND WATER STORAGE RESERVOIRS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Wind Advisory for tomorrow

Not only do we have to be concerned with the flooding potential, but also wind. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA... NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS INCLUDING SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY. * WINDS: SOUTHEAST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TIMING: WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: REDDING...CHICO...PARADISE...YUBA CITY... GRASS VALLEY...SACRAMENTO...LAKEPORT...STOCKTON...AND MODESTO. * IMPACTS: DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CARS AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.