Hydrologic Outlook for California

From the National Weather Service: THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR ALL BASINS IN CALIFORNIA. DRY ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND LOW SNOWPACKS ARE MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING SNOWMELT FLOODING. MUCH OF THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED VERY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER A VERY PRODUCTIVE NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECORDED PRECIPITATION AMONG THE TOP TEN LOWEST ON RECORD FOR THE COMBINED MONTHS OF JANUARY AND FEBRUARY. THIS HAS REDUCED THE STATEWIDE SNOWPACK WATER CONTENT FROM 134 PERCENT OF AVERAGE NEAR THE START OF JANUARY TO ABOUT 66 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SOME RELIEF OCCURRED DURING THE EARLY PART OF MARCH...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT WILL TAKE A SERIES OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS TO RETURN THE SNOWPACK TO NORMAL CONDITIONS BY APRIL 1ST... WHICH IS THE TYPICAL TIME OF MAXIMUM SNOWPACK ACCUMULATION. IT APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY THAT SNOWPACKS CAN RECOVER FROM THE CURRENT DEFICIT THIS LATE INTO THE WET SEASON. NOTE THAT FLOODING COULD STILL RESULT FROM HEAVY RAINFALL ALONE OR COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY APRIL. This is not good news, as California gets over a third of its water supply from the Sierra Nevada snowpack. Water restrictions appear imminent for the summer, and the fire season may start earlier than normal. One long shot is that we get numerous cold storms between now and the end of April to rebuild the snowpack to normal levels. That looks like it won't happen, however. We'll have to wait and see what the future holds!

storm is winding down

Chico received just over four tenths of an inch of rain from this storm- far under the half to one inch of rain that was forecast. Winds gusted to around 33 mph early this morning, and are still blustery at around 20 mph from the south as I type this. Other than some isolated thundershower activity tonight and tomorrow (not much of that, either, though there was a report of hail near the Marysville area south of Chico), don't expect any more widespread wet weather. The Sierra Nevada mountains could still pick up nearly a foot of snow between now and late Thursday as the storm departs our area and moves east. Spring weather returns Friday, and looks to stick around through the end of next week. Sunny days and clear nights will dominate our weather, with daytime highs in the 60s and 70s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. We could use more rain and snow, but it doesn't look like we'll get any for awhile. Here's Chico's seven day forecast from the National Weather Service: Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce small hail. Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Thursday A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Northwest wind around 6 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 36. North wind 6 to 8 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Sunny, with a high near 61. Northwest wind around 8 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 67. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 71. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Monday Sunny, with a high near 73. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.

Wind Advisory in effect

A Wind Advisory has been posted by the National Weather Service office in Sacramento until noon Wednesday (tomorrow). Wind gusts up to 45 mph in the valley and over 50 mph in the Sierra Nevada mountains are likely this evening and overnight tonight. If traveling in the area today, use caution.

latest on the storm

From the National Weather Service office in Sacramento: WINDY AND WET WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY... A COLD STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES TOMORROW WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BE BREEZY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE SACRAMENTO AREA IN THE EVENING AND DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH NEAR REDDING... TO AROUND A HALF INCH NEAR SACRAMENTO...TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR MODESTO. AROUND 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND LAKE COUNTY. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE COLDEST AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 2000 FT. DURING THIS TIME...SOME HIGHER FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND TWO FEET POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWN TO 3000 FT ON WEDNESDAY. * ELEVATION: ABOVE 4000 FT. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 5000 TO 6500 FT TUESDAY AND DROP DOWN TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING: LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVIER TUESDAY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND AROUND INTERSTATE 80 AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA AROUND 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS INCLUDE: CHESTER...QUINCY...BLUE CANYON...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INTERSTATE 80...HIGHWAYS 50 AND 88. * WINDS: SOUTH 15 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON SIERRA ROADWAYS MAY RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. LOCALIZED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

Special Weather Statement

From the National Weather Service office in Sacramento: COLD WINTER STORM HEADED FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEK... AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PASSAGE OF A COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TUESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BY MID DAY TUESDAY. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE TRANS SIERRA PASSES WILL LIKELY SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WINDING DOWN OVER THE SIERRA ON FRIDAY. IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TOTAL SNOWVALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME COULD REACH A FOOT AND A HALF AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WITH AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF SNOW EXPECTED AROUND THE 5000 FOOT LEVEL. THE COLDEST AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...SOME HIGHER FOOTHILL LOCATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SNOWFALL...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY...WINDSPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WINDSPEEDS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD REACH 50 MPH LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. BE ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER THIS COMING WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND WIND WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS.

winter weather returning

Happy Sunday! I was awoken by the flash of lightning followed by the crash of thunder about half an hour ago. I hadn't seen lightning or heard thunder in a long while. I was watching Youtube videos of thunderstorms last night (I know, I'm weird and have no life), and I was longing for the experiences I had as a young'un, watching severe thunderstorms wreak havoc over my house. I just love stormy weather! If you're like me, then you're in luck, as a strong winter storm barrels its way towards Northern California this coming week. Oh, the thunder and lightning I experienced this morning is related to a weak, quick-moving low pressure system coming through Norcal this morning. This storm should be out of here by late morning. Sunshine returns this afternoon (after being almost completely absent yesterday), and stick around through tomorrow. The stronger storm will arrive on Tuesday, bringing with it gusty winds, moderate rain, and snow above 4000 feet. Up to a half a foot of snow is possible in the Sierra Nevada above 4000 feet, with a foot or more above 5000 feet between Tuesday and Thursday. Blizzard conditions are possible in the Sierra Nevada, so plan accordingly if traveling through the mountains this week. In the valley (including Chico), rain will taper to showers Tuesday night, while showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday. Up to an inch of rain is possible in the valley between late Tuesday and early Thursday. By Friday, sunny and mild weather returns. Here is Chico's seven day forecast from the National Weather Service: Today A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 64. North wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the morning. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Calm wind becoming north northeast around 5 mph in the evening. Monday Sunny, with a high near 66. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Southeast wind around 9 mph. Tuesday Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. South southeast wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night Showers. Low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Thursday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce small hail. Partly sunny, with a high near 60. Thursday Night A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 70.

changes coming

The high temperature in Chico yesterday was 72 degrees under mostly sunny skies. It was beautiful! Too bad I was stuck indoors all day at a conference in Sacramento. Oh, well. The weekend looks nice, with mainly sunny skies and highs in the 60s. There will be a slight chance of a shower late Saturday night/ early Sunday morning. It will remain dry and mild until Tuesday, when a pretty powerful, colder storm moves in. Clouds will thicken, winds will pick up, and rain will begin to fall in the valley (snow in the mountains) by Tuesday and continue into Wednesday of next week. The National Weather Service is saying this is a pretty wet storm (meaning lots of moisture), so look for decent amounts of rain and snowfall. If I had to guesstimate, I'd say a half inch in the valley and at least 5-10 inches of snow in the mountains. Due to the colder air mass associated with this storm, I can guess the snow elevations will be low- probably around 3000 feet. We'll see if I'm right in the coming days. For now, enjoy the dry and mild weather. Here's the latest seven day forecast for Chico from the NWS: Today Sunny, with a high near 75. West northwest wind around 7 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Light and variable wind. Saturday Increasing clouds, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Calm wind. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday A 20 percent chance of showers before 10am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 5 mph in the morning. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Monday Sunny, with a high near 66. Monday Night A slight chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Tuesday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Tuesday Night Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Wednesday Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Wednesday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Thursday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.